Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Years later….

Posted: January 16, 2016 in General

So finally more drama on the horizon with markets sliding downwards in the perfect storm of a stalling Chinese economy and a falling oil price (the latter obviously fuelled in part but not entirely by the former).

Whilst I’m aware that my portfolio will no doubt fluctuate to a similar extent that the wider market does. It should given the quality of most of the stocks within it, recover along with it down the line. However i can’t but help think that this latest turmoil presents another great buying or reshaping opportunity for my portfolio.

This poses me a dilemma over what to do. My choices so far as I can see are;

1. Sell out now crystallise profits and buy back in when things stabilise at a level close to where the consensus of a recovery appears likely. Theoretically if timed more or less correctly, I’ll be sitting on a larger holding for the same initial investment.

Clearly very risky due to criticality of the timing of exit and re-entry back into each stock holding. Wrong timing decision could exclude me from re-entry. However a tempting choice to attempt given the potential gains.

2. Hold current portfolio but increase holdings of the most promising stocks as the price falls. Seems sensible along with reviewing watchlist to see what’s become enticing.

3. Do nothing at all.

Monitise close call…

Posted: November 5, 2014 in General, Monitise

My Monitise (MON:LN) shares have flagged alerts a few times lately, they’ve been on a downward slide and i’ve seriously toyed with actually following through and selling off.

Now as mentioned before selling off on share price performance alone, is something I’ve struggled with as an investor. It’s a hard habit to break. So yet again I have played chicken instead and moved my stop-loss out to a massive 20%. Another horrifc mistake probably.

However there’s a few reasons why im disinclined to get out to soon here, the biggest is that I have read about rumours regarding a takeover move, and that any such move won’t be cheap. And secondly the growth prospects are as sound as they were when I first made the decision to invest.  Arguably therefore riding the peaks and troughs is a sound decision, for now, presumably. Time will tell.

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Tesco Turmoil continues…

Posted: October 24, 2014 in General, Tesco

It seems a very fortunate decision that I sold out of Tesco (TSCO:LN) while still in profit (albeit for personal reasons other than investment prospects).  Admittedly things were choppy even back then, but I’m sure nobody apart from those involved could have second guessed the sheer scale of events and pace of decline in recent months. I was prior to these recent revelations, even optimistic over longer term prospects.

That for me however has all changed anyway. Partly due to a few years of UK economic tightening, and partly due to the efforts by the budget chains to lure a broader spectrum of customers in, with keen pricing, and premium budget offerings.

While Tesco remain an economic gargantuan, I think we may be in for a long period of decline in market share for all the big three. Why? Well in my opinion it is now clear that the UK supermarket sector has evolved fundamentally. The  previous habitual shoppers, faithful to a single store and doing a weekly shop are all but gone, and replaced with nomadic grazers, favouring to spend at the budget chains for the majority everyday items, and visiting premium supermarkets for what remains.  In my opinion this trend is noticeable in the re-balancing seemingly taking place in market share, between the big three and the rapid rise of the budgeteers like Aldi and Lidl. This trend I think will remain set for years to come I believe.

How this will translate in future sales and the bottom-line for the likes of Tesco in the next few years will be critical.  Certainly I’m going to watch with interest, a turnaround I think is an incorrect terminology, we are surely talking in terms of halting a decline.

From an investors perspective,  opportunities will surely present themselves during this transition. I’m just not sure I’m going to be rushing back anytime soon.

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