Archive for the ‘Portfolio’ Category

Has Booker peaked….

Posted: February 4, 2014 in Booker, Portfolio

I am getting pretty nervous about Booker (BOK:LN).  And thinking about taking profits and moving on. I was just looking over the Booker data again showing revenues growing nicely since 2008/9, that is good. However, in the past year or so revenues have seemingly slowed, and subsequently EPS growth has fallen to 2.07%.  Yet inversely the P/E is now just over 20.

I know once Makro is properly on-stream revenues should start an upward path again. Surely though the P/E at this time, is scarily high.

Jury is out, but I could probably argue a case to myself that the time to sell is now , and utilise the profits riding on this share, elsewhere.  More thinking to do I think…

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Beazley Portfolio recovery…

Posted: November 29, 2013 in Beazley, Portfolio

While I undoubtedly made a large error in not using my stop-loss on this share. I am mightily relieved to see that my judgement (luck) paid off on this occasion and Beazley (BEZ:LN) is now showing in my portfolio as a net gain of 2-3% now, from a previous loss of around 15% at  maximum.

Given that the business seems to be largely following expectations and the outlook hasn’t changed significantly my confidence continues. And while I will reset my stop-loss (and stick to it this time) I will happily continue to hold.

My lessons learned on this share, is that I should have sold-out as it fell (used my stop-loss). And brought myself back in when the share had stabilised and started to gain.  The net gain may be the same, but the exposure to risk I gave my portfolio during the journey would have been considerably less.

And I think it is fair to say that anything that can be done to minimise risks can only be considered a wise practice to follow.

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One of my recent portfolio additions Beazley (BEZ.LN)  has been skidding along the bottom range of share prices I considered natural volatility, unsurprisingly since around when I stocked up for my portfolio. This was due to an RNS indicating that interest rate changes were impacting this quarter’s revenues from their financial investments, when compared to YOY figures.  

This might possibly have spooked me more than it did, but I supposed that it was probably not really a big deal given the bigger picture of the future longer term impact which should be positive.  And not much of a concern against the backdrop of improving data on most of the other Insurers financial measures. 

Maybe though this was not a view shared by many others, as recently the share price has continued to fall and has now crossed over into my stop-loss territory.  Strangely though rather than allowing nature to take its course, and the stop-loss to occur as one should do using sound investment philosophy.  I have decided that I know better, cancelled and have held-on way past beyond where I should have got out to protect my capital.

Now having made this error,  I have the dilemma of biting the bullet and jumping out now with a bigger than planned erosion of capital (and loss of pride), or remaining patient and riding this one out back into the black. Which will surely happen. I think.

Incidentally the riding out of troubles of my speculative shares held in Ruspetro (RPO.LN) hasn’t exactly gone swimmingly well.   In fact it is still languishing as a 40 something % loss. Which is why I am already regretting what is possibly another silly mistake albeit of a much smaller magnitude.

One thing is for certain though, this is the last time I am going to interfere with a stop-loss. 

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